Preface
After being the closest I’ve ever been to winning last season, I went into this season with a pretty good mindset. Recently, as I’ve been busy with other commitments, I’ve been focusing on reviewing the words I recently studied - I noticed that I didn’t retain a sizable portion of them especially well. I picked back up doing cardboxing (via Zyzzyva) to help maintain these words.
Game 1 - A bit too quick
Against Taurus777, it’s still very early in the game and I’m facing a small 27 point deficit.
While waiting for their turn, I was eying the plays of J1 QUEP# alongside WOF# for 29, holding a solid NST with a floating E, or 8F QU(E)P# for only 15 points, but holding the valuable E. I was leaning towards the higher scoring positioning of QUEP, feeling that the 14 point sacrifice was a bit too much, and that QU(E)P# blocked my best line for bingoes ending in S, and somewhat constricted the board while I was trying to keep a good leave because QUEP# is an interjection and does not take an S.
After Taurus played (W)HIRR, I figured that with my higher scoring positioning of QUEP# blocked, it was time to part with the Q and quickly played P(I)QUE for 32. Unfortunately, I managed to miss that QUEP# plays with 3 overlaps on top of WHIRR for 13 more points. QUEP# is also deceptively hard to parallel on the triple with a 4 letter word starting with a high point tile because ER doesn’t hook with any of the vowels. My play of P(I)QUE also exposes an unnecessary triple letter score that can be disastrous if Taurus has the Z, and bails out a lot of clunky racks that contain multiple high point tiles.
Later in the game in a pre-endgame with 3 tiles in the bag, facing a 69 point deficit, I’m in the following position with the unseen pool of AEINOSTUUY:
One seemingly standout option is the only available bingo, LIsT(S)ERV for 61 points. Although I didn’t actually spot the bingo here, there are major problems with playing it immediately. I’ll still be down 8 points after my bingo, and Taurus will have the first shot at plays unloading a lot of their tiles or scoring well, especially if they have the Y to underlap the N in ZANJA# or the U in BLaSTULA. Even if I drew the Y myself, I may not have a high scoring outplay in both spots, so Taurus is likely to have a solid out-in-two sequence that will squeak out the win.
The next option to consider is fishing 2 tiles, leaving 1 in the bag, forcing Taurus to empty the bag, so I can catch them with unplayed tiles after an outbingo. There are multiple ways to do this, but the main one I looked at was 5B V(O)L# for 20. It keeps a very strong EIRT? leave that is likely to bingoes from the S in STARNOSE and bingoes under the F in FIREE. The problem I felt that with this play was that it didn’t score quite enough. Even though it cuts my deficit down to just 49, it’s vulnerable to high scoring 3 tile plays starting with Y under ZANJA# that will outrun any bingo I draw by just 1 point, including YAE#, YAS, and YON. For example, if I draw NU from the bag, if Taurus plays YAS in that spot for 38, I’ll then be down 87. After I play any of my highest scoring options underneath FIREE, all scoring 76, I collect 10 points for 5 unplayed 1 point tiles, only making up 86 points of my 87 point deficit.
The play I actually ended up making in this position was a similar idea to V(O)L#. I played V(O)LE for 28 points, emptying the bag. My thought process was that with a vowel heavy unseen pool, I’m still very likely to draw a bingo in both spots, and by scoring 8 more points now, I can actually outscore Taurus’ Y plays. Although this wins 75.6% of the time according to Macondo, there was actually a better option.
Macondo’s favorite play is the relatively unassuming looking 13L (A)L for just 10 points, suggesting it wins 88.7% of the time. The first thing to note about this play is that it bingoes 100% of the time. Even normally poor draws such as the U making the toxic UV combination still bingo because of fURTIVE on the bottom and (S)TUIVERs on the left. All draws except another I actually also hit the triple in both spots. The real strength of this play is keeping the normally troublesome V. My initial instinct was to get rid of the V immediately to max out on my bingo chances, but I actually need to keep the V to make my bingoes score more here. Bingos on the bottom will score a minimum of 82 points, but usually 85 points, and all bingoes I can draw from the S are at least 80 points, usually 83 points. Most of Taurus’ non-bingo scoring plays will leave the bottom row unobstructed, and many draws are able to slot the V on the double letter score while hitting one of the triples.
In the actual game, the final 3 tiles in the bag were ESU, and Taurus made their best endgame move of YON (because I have bingoes in both spots), after which I bingoed out with SToURIE, winning by just 5 points. Even though it worked out here, I didn’t quite get there to the best play.
Game 2 - Most of the way there
Most of the way through this game, I’m leading supernova by just 2 points.
Here, seeing that the board isn’t especially good for bingoes, an unseen blank in the pool, and a somewhat clunky rack holding duplicate As and Is, I quickly played M3 PARIAL# for 30 points. I didn’t love holding a lone I in a relatively vowel heavy pool (equal vowels and consonants), but I didn’t see a lot of other options. Unfortunately, there’s actually a different spelling of the same word that I didn’t know, PAIRIAL#, for 84 points. I was just about 6/7 of the way to the correct play.
A few moves later, now with just 7 tiles remaining in the bag, I'm ahead 20 points and on turn in this position:
With an unseen Q and 2 Us, as well as even more vowels, one threat I need to be worried about is Q plays hitting the upper right triple, scoring around 40 points. Unfortunately, with this rack, I don’t have a lot of plays that can address that threat. Here, I played C2 WOO for 32 points, scoring well, and stopping bingoes that start with the remaining O in the pool, while setting up the last remaining L for potential bingoes or endgame sequences hooking L(OBI)#, though occasionally offering bingoes back if supernova has a bingo starting with the last G to make G(OBI)#. A potential issue with this play is that by leaving 4 tiles in the bag, the common play of QUA(G) for 42 points, reducing my lead to 8 points, may leave me in an uncomfortable position, needing to block potential bingoes starting with G while also scoring well to outrun other plays.
Macondo’s favorite play is a very sneaky one, extending VERB to VERBAL for 22 points. Because LI takes no front hooks, this reduces supernova’s bingo chances down to just 4%, likely 9 letter words through the N and E. The real genius of this play is that it sets up the massive C2 WOOT for 44 points, offering no bingo lines back and taking a strong lead that is very difficult for supernova to make up on such a tight board. Additionally, supernova is very unlikely to play in that spot because I hold the last remaining hook for ELK, as well as second-to-last O to fronthook OBI. These sneaky preendgame setups in close games are something I should be looking for more often - Macondo likes (VERB)AL by 18.9% win percentage over WOO.
Game 3 - Be careful of the analyzer
Down 27 points with 2 in the bag, I’m in some trouble against yongjianrong.
I’d love to score well with the X here, but there aren’t any great hotspots for it. The unseen tile pool is a bit rough (EIIINOOSS), but I’d also like to be able to play out in 2 turns to try to outrun scoring plays that unload a lot of tiles like IONISE under HIE for 26.
Macondo’s suggested play via the analyzer is B7 L(U)X for 10 points. The main merit of this play it sees is that it bingoes 69.5% of the time. The problem with this is that since it is using simulation and not its pre-endgame solver, it assumes that yongjianrong will make their top equity move, often ignoring any playable bingoes that I may have. Against an actual human player, especially an expert player like yongjianrong, emptying the bag like this will usually only work if I can draw a bingo in 2 spots. In this case, after a 6 ply exhaustive pre-endgame solve, L(U)X only actually wins 8.33% of the time, if I draw exactly EI out of the bag (threatening bingoes like aGENETI(C) where yongjianrong has to sacrifice a lot of points to block with 2F NO(O) for 5, after which I can make a high scoring out-in-2 that wins by a single point.
In the actual game, I made the play of 4k L(E)NG# for just 7 points, leaving ETX?. My idea was to try to draw an S to set up extremely heavy 6 tile out plays on the triple that yongjianrong will struggle to block without giving me the opportunity to slowplay him in the endgame as he will be forced to get rid of his more flexible letters for a low score. Additionally, if I draw an S, I’m threatening a massive play of 15L XyST hooking VINALS for 63 points.
Of note: L(E)NG# is a decent play but not best, in an unfinished full preendgame solve, one of the plays that Macondo liked better was L(E)G in the same spot. The N is actually quite helpful for drawing unblockable bingoes. For example, drawing EI threatens 1B EXITaN(C)E# at the top of the board, as well as the extremely sneaky 7A EXIT(A)NcE with 5 overlaps in the middle of the board. Another example is the draw of OO, which yields the 104 point 15A NEXTdOO(R) at the base of the board and B2 OXTONg(U)E.
In the actual game, the final 2 tiles in the bag were OS. After their optimal play of 15A IONISE for 26, I played out with O4 SEXTOn for 46 points, winning by just 2 points.
Game 4 - A novel pre-endgame idea Quite early into my game with Inverse, I’m already trailing by 84 points after his opening bingo.
While waiting for Inverse’s play, I had already spotted my bingo of sTARETZ#, which fit hooking OMOVS# or NYS# for 78 and 74 points respectively. I elected to hold onto my blank and score extremely well with D10 REZ for 54, figuring it was also significantly more defensive than my bingoes. Unfortunately, although I had spotted the hook when I had initially played JUG(A) on my first turn, I failed to notice the A(JUGA) hook on this turn, where sTARETZ# is significantly more defensive and scores a strong 95 points. If I had taken a bit more time to look for a better spot, or if I had written down the hook in my notepad, then this mistake could’ve easily been avoided.
Fast forward to the pre-endgame with 2 tiles in the bag, and I’m trailing by only 4 points.
In the unseen pool of AAAGHQRRX, the most important tile remaining is the Q. The Q only plays by itself in one spot, at 9B. The X is also a tile that I should be considering, because there are some solid scoring plays with it such as F13 AX for 31 points. Seeing that I was holding the last U, as well as other tiles such as the A and the T that could help me to play the Q, I made the play of 10B S(TRODE) for 9 points, leaving 1 tile in the bag. My idea was that the Q no longer plays on this board if Inverse has already drawn it, so if they just drew it after their play of (WO)RLDED#, they are now stuck with it and I essentially get 20 points and as much time as I need to play out. my leave of ANOSTU combines with a Q draw to make multiple big threats such as N6 QUANTS, L1 QUAT(E), and B6 QUAT(S)#. I also have the opportunity to draw 7I SANTOUR as an outbingo hooking SNYE and Ag if I can pull one of the two remaining Rs from the bag.
Although this was a good idea, there’s a bit of a cleaner way to force the issue. Macondo’s favorite play, also winning 100% on a 6 ply pre-endgame, is B10 SO for 13. This play similarly blocks the only remaining Q spot but sets up an even more powerful Q spot if I draw it, A11 SQUAT for 74. A sneaky value of this play is that given the unseen tile pool, Inverse actually cannot have any play that can reach the triple. The only 5 letter words remaining in the pool (AARGH and ARRAH#) cannot overlap the O, so I have complete free rein to make a high scoring out in 2 sequence hitting the triple.
Luckily, in this game, although I didn’t quite make the best move, I did draw an R from the bag, letting me bingo out with SANTOUR.
Afterword
Although last season was actually the closest I’ve come to winning the league, this season was my best performance ever, finishing 10-4 +490 in 2nd place, only after jellomochas. Although I couldn’t quite match my 2.0 MiAOW from last season, 2.6 is certainly better than my average. Hopefully I will have more time to study bingoes in some of the coming seasons and maybe I’ll get another chance to win a season soon.
Stats
Lost Endgame Points: 46 (10/14 optimal endgames)
Missed Bingo Turns: 6 (1 Word Knowledge, 5 Playfinding)
Suboptimal Bingo Turns: 9 (4 Word Knowledge, 5 Playfinding)